A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
